CITIC Securities CICC: Container Freight Rates Seen Peaking Then Easing in H2 2026

A research note by China Securities Co., Ltd. (CITIC Securities) and China International Capital Corp. (CICC) said the container shipping market saw stronger-than-expected gains in both volumes and prices in the first half of 2026, while freight rates are expected to peak at elevated levels and then decline in the second half, according to Jiemian News. The note cited near-term downside pressure from easing Middle East tensions, falling oil prices and a post-frontloading demand gap, while saying the medium- to long-term rate “center” may remain relatively high. It added that supply-side pressure could rise as large numbers of new vessels are delivered from 2027 to 2029, with the pace of Red Sea route normalization a key variable, and warned that uncertainty over countries’ tariff policies toward China and persistent global container port congestion could increase supply-chain volatility and weaken traditional freight-rate cycles.