Market News | Core CPI Beats at 0.3%, Two-Year Yield Jumps to 4.61%, Hike Near-Certain — Real Wages Fall as Diesel Hits $6 and Bitcoin Rebounds to $77K
August CPI landed in line on headline at 3.4% but hot on core at 0.3% — the number that put a September hike near certainty, sending the 2-year yield up 6bps to 4.61% while the 10-year held flat at 4.95%. The curve flattening is the market's verdict: a Fed seen as responding adequately, not one behind the curve. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% year-over-year as wages grew 3.1% against 3.4% inflation — households are already shifting to discount stores. Diesel hit $6 per gallon for the first time. Bitcoin fell to $76,700 then rebounded to $77,320. Binance's Bitcoin reserves crossed 693,000 BTC — 30% of all major exchange holdings. The CLARITY Act procedural vote is September 15. The FOMC decides September 16.Two-Year Yield Jumps to 4.61% as Traders Price a Near-Certain Hike, 10-Year Stays FlatClarity Act Faces Procedural Vote on September 15, Trump Crypto Adviser SaysWhite House digital assets advisory council executive director Patrick Witt told Semafor the window of opportunity for the CLARITY Act is closing — if next week's procedural cloture vote fails, no one can say when the bill gets another chance. The vote is scheduled for September 15, the day before the FOMC decision. The bill still needs 60 votes to advance, requiring at least 10 Senate Democrats beyond the Republican base. The government ethics provision — restricting senior officials from profiting from crypto while in office — remains the primary sticking point, with a bipartisan revised proposal sitting unanswered at the White House. For XRP specifically, market-structure legislation carries more weight than for most assets given how much of its trajectory has been shaped by regulatory classification questions — it jumped 5% when the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May.U.S. Wage Growth Trails Inflation As Consumer Prices Rise 3.4% In AugustAverage hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year against 3.4% CPI — leaving real average hourly earnings down 0.1% from July and 0.3% from a year earlier. Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long: "A substantial number of Americans are worse off because incomes are not keeping pace with price increases." Gasoline prices rose 3.9% in August and diesel reached $6 per gallon Friday for the first time, driven by fuel supply disruptions tied to the Iran and Ukraine conflicts. Households are already adapting: Navy Federal's internal data shows members shifting spending toward Costco, Aldi and discount warehouses. The consumer squeeze is the transmission mechanism that makes the Fed's decision genuinely painful in either direction — a hike compounds the real wage decline, a hold validates the inflation that is causing it.Binance Bitcoin Reserves Reach 693,000 BTC, Roughly 30% of Major Exchange HoldingsBinance's Bitcoin reserves surpassed 693,000 BTC — an increase of approximately 77,000 BTC since late April — accounting for roughly 30% of the ~2.3M BTC held across major trading platforms combined. The concentration ratio mirrors Binance's $15.7B in August inflows that captured 75% of all centralized exchange flows — capital returning to crypto is routing to depth and liquidity rather than distributing across venues. 693,000 BTC represents roughly 3.5% of Bitcoin's total circulating supply sitting on a single platform, a figure that reflects both genuine user preference for Binance's liquidity and the flight-to-quality dynamic that has characterized the sector through months of volatility.Gold Nears $4,347 As CPI Print Tests $3,950 Head-And-Shoulders TargetGold traded near $4,347 on Friday, sitting on the neckline of a daily head-and-shoulders pattern that projects to $3,950 if confirmed — a potential further 9% decline from current levels. Thursday's PPI came in at 5.4% YoY versus 5.3% expected, and the 10-year hit 4.95% — both adding to the opportunity cost pressure that has pulled gold from its $5,600 January record to current levels. The technical setup arrives at a moment when the PBOC is buying its most gold since 2023 and central banks globally are accelerating domestic reserve storage — structural demand that has historically made gold head-and-shoulders patterns less reliable than in other assets, since sovereign buyers are price-insensitive in ways that retail technical traders are not.
