Is the bull market coming? Bitcoin is hot, I’m cold

Author: Climber, Golden Finance

On February 28, Bitcoin rose to $64,000, just one step away from the all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

This wave of market movement is quite rapid. Starting from September last year, the price of BTC has been rising from around US$25,000. In six months, the price of BTC has increased by as much as 176 %.

When almost everyone is shouting that the bull market in the currency circle has arrived and no longer trap people, a cruel fact is: sitting on 1170 coins Only 7 tokens from Binance have broken through the previous high of the last bull market, accounting for only 0.598%!

Theoretically, if investors buy at the highest point of the last bull market, the proportion of people who have not unwinded their losses will be as high as 99.402%!

After combing through 1,170 currencies on the Binance platform, the author only found 7 that surpassed the previous high of the last bull market. Strictly speaking, TWT must be excluded, because TWT is in It was surpassed in December 2022, and the current currency price has dropped 57.14% from its high point.

From the picture above, we can see that the currencies that broke the previous high generally have not increased much from the previous high. Even TRB, which has an increase of 283.53%, is because There is a trader behind it. Therefore, theoretically speaking, investors who hold the above currencies but buy at the highest price will have meager returns.

But for investors in the above currencies, they are considered lucky and have at least recovered their capital. Except for TWT, almost all of them cost two years, some even two and a half years.

By analyzing the project types, we can find that the sectors involved in tokens include oracles, AI, modularity, BTC L2, Internet of Things, and wallets, many of which This project is a popular narrative concept in this round of market conditions. From this point of view, the investment logic of speculating in the new and not in the old still applies to the currency circle.

Summary

This wave of BTC price rise is indeed amazing. At this rate, hitting the highest point in history is just around the corner. However, during the rise of BTC, many investors, including the author, felt that they had not made any money. It seems that the bull market is coming, but not all of it has come.

A crypto practitioner with six years of investment experience in the currency circle said to the author: The LTC, NEAR, and YGG I bought in the last round are still losing 90 %, Bitcoin is indeed hot, but I feel cold.