The surge has just begun
Recently, Matrixport released a new issue According to the report, the halving event is never the peak of the cycle, and the Bitcoin rebound may have just begun.

It said in the report: "Although the halving is coming (April 19/20, 2024), the halving has never been the top of the cycle. On the contrary, the halving means that the mining reward is halved. , the Bitcoin bull market has just passed the halfway point. It is true that the leverage ratio is now very high, and positions and funding rates have increased excessively, but in the short term, the rise may also continue.
We are in the midst of a Bitcoin bull market and the key now is to maintain exposure (long positions) until this rally eventually follows the parabolic trend and collapses under its pressure.
Cryptocurrency bull market overbought conditions tend to last longer than traders expect, and when prices should pull back,overbought signals tend to attract more buying home, instead of showing mean reversion, the price will rise parabolically.
According to the model of Tether’s impact on Bitcoin price, it is estimated that 10-200 USD 100 million in ETF inflows could have a huge impact on Bitcoin prices. It is estimated that for every additional USD 5 billion in capital inflows, Bitcoin prices will increase by 15%.
In addition, the shift in asset allocation between Bitcoin spot ETFs and gold ETFs may still be in the early stages.”
Recently, Matrixport analyst Markus recently commented on BlockBeats According to the exclusive interview, Bitcoin may reach US$125,000 this year, and the bull market may continue from February to September next year.
It added: "One indicator we saw last July was that when Bitcoin hit a new one-year high for the first time in a year, There will be a 300% rebound, so this data can also be pushed to $125,000. Last year our judgment was very accurate, this year may be more conservative, and Bitcoin may reach $125,000 by the end of this year or next year."
Not only that, Markus also believes that this bull market may last from February to September next year, and the current bull market is only half-way.
On February 24, Matrixport released a new report stating that BTC will reach the target of US$63,000 in March 2024, which has been achieved. .
Bitcoin Halving
Not only Matrixport is bullish about the market outlook According to CoinDesk, some traders said that optimism, institutional buying demand and historical gains related to Bitcoin’s halving event are pushing the asset past an all-time high of $69,000 in March.
The next halving is expected in mid-April. As long as demand remains the same or increases, the number of new Bitcoins on the open market will decrease and the price will tend to increase. rise.
Historic price action may not repeat itself in the future, but expectations of a rebound could prompt investors to place huge bets on the asset.
Hectic Labs CEO Bryan Legend said: "This expectation always leads to increased buying activity, and investors expect reduced supply to push higher price, and the pre-halving rebound will contribute to a new bull market and bring new bullish sentiment.”
In addition, Bitget Research said, There are still 54 days until the Bitcoin halving, coupled with the expectation of a mid-year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the Bitcoin price has a support level of $50,000, and may fluctuate to a record high in March.
ETF funds continue to flow in
< strong>In addition, many analysts believe that ETFs have a potentially huge impact on Bitcoin.
Basic changes in the balance of Bitcoin's supply and demand could have a greater impact on the price of the cryptocurrency, according to an analysis report by asset management firm Grayscale. Big impact, especially the upcoming halving event.
Historically, halving events are usually followed by a cycle of rising prices. However, a new factor, namely ETFs, will also impact Bitcoin’s performance during this April’s halving event. The report states: “In addition to overall positive on-chain fundamentals, Bitcoin’s market structure is favorable for price post-halving.”

The Grayscale report pointed out that the current amount of new coins issued in each block (mining Reward) is 6.25 Bitcoins, which is approximately $14 billion per year based on a price of $43,000. In other words, to maintain current prices, $14 billion worth of buying pressure would need to be generated over the same period. "After the halving, these demands will be reduced by half: the issuance of new coins per block is 3.125 Bitcoins, which is equivalent to reducing to $7 billion per year, effectively reducing the selling pressure."
After the halving, the mining reward per block will be reduced to 3.125 Bitcoins. In order to cope with cost pressure, miners usually sell more Bitcoin stocks, thereby increasing supply and driving down prices.
Grayscale said that the nine Bitcoin spot ETF products recently launched by Wall Street may "serve as a hedging force against the selling pressure of miners." The report states:“Bitcoin ETFs could significantly absorb selling pressure, potentially reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure by providing a stable source of new demand, which would be beneficial for prices.”
< p style="text-align: left;">On February 21, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the The average transaction volume increased by 14 times.
He pointed out that unlike the surge in trading volume that is usually driven by a single large investor, 32,000 individual trades were behind this increase, which is about average. 60 times.

Bitcoin spot ETF BTCW's daily trading volume reached US$154 million, 12 times its average trading volume, and its trading volume was 25 times its total asset value. The transaction involved 23,000 individual transactions, in stark contrast to just 221 transactions on February 17.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan explained in an interview with CNBC: "I think there will be a bigger wave of Bitcoin ETFs in a few months. wave, because we're starting to see the major large brokerage firms start to make moves.
So we're going to see the next wave of institutional capital coming ." He added that the first wave of interest in Bitcoin ETFs came mainly from retail, hedge funds and independent financial advisers. He called the ETF Bitcoin’s “IPO moment.”
Write at the end
It can be said, The halving event is an important catalyst for the Bitcoin bull market. Historically, there will be a cycle of price increases after each halving, and the next halving is expected to be in mid-April 2024. Come, when the supply of Bitcoin will be reduced by half, which will help the price increase.
On the other hand, ETF capital inflows are a new factor in the Bitcoin market, which may significantly absorb the selling pressure of miners and provide A stable source of new demand will reshape Bitcoin’s market structure.