STOCKS | Citi Expects Japanese Stocks to Rebound by Year-End, Says Recession Risks Are Overpriced

Citi expects Japanese stocks to rebound by the end of 2026, saying the November 6 selloff had already priced in a recession scenario. According to Sina Finance, Citi does not expect Japan or the global economy to enter a recession. The Nikkei 225 has fallen more than 7% since November began. Concerns about tighter regulation of the U.S. AI and data center industries after the U.S. midterm elections, along with worries about further interest rate hikes after the Bank of Japan announced it had formally moved away from deflation, contributed to the selloff. The decline spread from technology stocks to other sectors, reflecting expectations of a broad deterioration in corporate earnings. Based on November 6 closing prices, Citi estimated that Japanese stocks implied earnings per share (EPS) expectations about 20% below the current consensus forecast, equivalent to a nearly 30% decline in overall corporate EPS for fiscal 2027. Such large earnings downgrades have historically occurred mainly during recessions. The MSCI Japan Information Technology Index implied a year-over-year EPS decline of more than 50% for fiscal 2027, which Citi considered too extreme. Technology stocks account for about 23% of the TOPIX. Citi said that even if technology-sector earnings were halved, overall Japanese corporate EPS would be unlikely to fall by more than 30% if other sectors remained stable. It said current share prices therefore also imply a sharp decline in earnings outside technology, making the market reaction excessive. Citi noted that a similar situation occurred in 2025: although analysts gradually cut earnings forecasts, share prices’ implied earnings expectations improved quickly and the market rebounded. The bank acknowledged that Japanese stocks could remain volatile in the short term but maintained its view that the market would recover by year-end.