Nomura: RBA May Make Its Final Rate Hike in February 2027

According to Jin10, Nomura said Australia’s financial conditions are clearly restrictive and its baseline scenario remains that the cash rate has peaked. Nomura estimates about a 33% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates one final time, most likely around February 2027. After that, Nomura broadly expects several rate cuts from August 2027, when rising unemployment and falling oil prices are expected to give the RBA confidence that inflation will return to target.