PRECIOUS METALS | Goldman Sachs: Speculative Funds Pull $19.5 Billion From Gold in Five Weeks as Selling Pressure Persists

On November 8, Goldman Sachs said persistent speculative outflows were a major reason for the recent sharp decline in international gold prices. According to Sina Finance, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) positioning data showed that managed funds, other traders, and non-reportable traders collectively cut about $8 billion in gold positions from October 20 to 27, marking a fifth consecutive week of net outflows. Since September 22, cumulative speculative outflows from the gold market have reached $19.5 billion. Of the $8 billion outflow from October 20 to 27, about $5.2 billion came from long liquidations and $2.8 billion from new short positions. Other traders and non-reportable traders accounted for about 95% of the outflow. Long-position reductions by the other-trader category alone totaled $4 billion, making nontraditional investors the main force behind the selling, Goldman Sachs said. Goldman Sachs said large-scale speculative selling explained why gold failed to benefit from falling real interest rates. From October 20 to 27, the U.S. 10-year real Treasury yield fell 11 basis points, which would typically support gold, a non-yielding asset, but gold prices declined 1.6% over the same period. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.6% and Brent crude gained 4.1%, adding to the downward pressure on gold. Analysts said concerns about sovereign liquidity management and a strong dollar may have prompted some investors to exit gold positions. Selling pressure may not have fully run its course. Although managed funds’ net positions were relatively low, as of October 27, other traders’ long gold positions remained above the median of the past two years both in nominal value and as a share of open interest, suggesting room for further liquidations. Gold prices fell another 4.3% from October 27 to 30, while Brent crude rose a further 3.7%. Options markets also began to reflect bearish sentiment: gold’s three-month implied volatility increased, and the 25-delta put-call skew rose to the 85th percentile of its range over the past year, indicating increased downside hedging and bearish bets.