NYT Reports Suspicious Prediction Market Bets Before Poll Releases

Suspicious prediction market bets were placed shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls became public, according to a report. According to Cointelegraph, Vanderbilt University researchers said a Polymarket user wagered almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected, and a Times/Siena poll released an hour later showed Ricketts in the lead. A Friday report by The New York Times said it was unclear whether the user had access to inside information, but the bettor won more than $77,000. The user also placed similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi. Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security said the circumstances were difficult to dismiss as random and required further investigation. Polymarket said it had identified the trades and was investigating, while Kalshi declined to comment. Cointelegraph reported in April that a US Army soldier had been charged after allegedly earning more than $400,000 by betting on a prediction market using nonpublic information connected to a US operation involving then Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke participated in planning and carrying out Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to Maduro’s capture at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January. According to the DOJ, Van Dyke allegedly used that information to purchase “yes” shares in Polymarket contracts tied to the operation, including “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.” The cases involve separate prediction market activity, and the report did not establish whether the bets made ahead of the Times/Siena poll releases relied on inside information. Polymarket said its investigation into the trades was ongoing.