Societe Generale: U.S. Treasury Safe-Haven Appeal Expected to Persist as Focus Returns to Fundamentals

According to Jin10, Societe Generale interest-rate strategists said the U.S. Treasury market’s focus is shifting back to fundamentals after the U.S. midterm elections. The October U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is due at 21:30 (UTC+8). The strategists said falling oil prices and the removal of a major risk event initially lifted stocks and bonds together, while long-term issues remain, including fiscal policy, Treasury issuance, the debt ceiling, and the pace of AI investment. They expect U.S. Treasuries to retain their safe-haven appeal and said fading fiscal stimulus, moderating inflation, and periodic volatility in risk assets would support moderately lower yields and a flatter yield curve over the medium term.