Exxon Mobil Says Refining Capacity, Not Crude Supply, Is the Bigger Oil Price Threat

Exxon Mobil management said the bigger threat to the energy system is refining capacity, not crude supply. According to Sina Finance, Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen told analysts at Barclays' 40th Energy and Power Conference that the energy system faces a larger risk from refining capacity than from crude supply. Hansen said disruptions such as conflict in the Middle East typically trigger a familiar market response: countries release strategic petroleum reserves and commercial inventories, producers such as the United States and Brazil raise output, and higher oil prices curb some demand from the chemicals and refining sectors. He said the refining industry is facing multiple pressures at once, including about 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity shut in because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, about 1 million barrels per day of capacity lost after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and a lack of specific grades of crude needed for Asian refineries to run at full capacity. Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said on the company's July second-quarter earnings call that, except during the COVID-19 shutdown period, the gap between available refining capacity and demand is the most severe he has seen. Woods also said a proposed windfall tax on downstream refining profits in a European country is short-sighted and would ultimately discourage the investment needed to address capacity shortages. Exxon Mobil has already sued over a windfall tax introduced by the European Union, arguing that the levy is improper. Hansen said the supply-demand imbalance will not resolve quickly, and that even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes, it will take time for market confidence to recover and tanker flows to return to prior levels.