River Report Says Traditional 60/40 Portfolio Is Outdated, Recommends Up to 10% Bitcoin

Bitcoin financial services company River released a report by Sam Baker arguing that the traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio is no longer suitable for long-term investors. According to ChainCatcher, the report recommends raising Bitcoin allocation to as much as 10%. The report said the 60/40 portfolio delivered annualized returns of about 5% to 15% from 1980 to 2020, but inflation, debt, and the stock-bond correlation have reversed. It also said U.S. Treasury debt exceeded $40 trillion in August 2026. Over the past decade, a simulation showed that replacing part of bonds with 10% Bitcoin lifted the portfolio's final value from $25,364 to $60,595, while maximum drawdown increased by only 6 percentage points. As of August 2026, Bitcoin accounted for about 0.5% of global financial assets.