VIX Jumps to 18 as Traders Favor AI Risk Over Fed Volatility

According to CNBC, the Cboe VIX Index jumped to 18 on Monday, and options trading on the gauge rose to more than double the 30-day average volume as semiconductors and data-center stocks weighed on the S&P 500. By midday, three of the top five VIX contracts to buy were calls, and the biggest trade of the day was someone buying at least $3.6 million of 31-strike calls expiring in mid-November. The move came after the VIX erased two days of gains on Friday even as inflation data pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at this week's meeting to 90%. By Friday's close, options on the S&P 500 were pricing a 0.8% swing into weekly contracts expiring Sep. 18, below the 50th percentile of volatility expected for weeks with an FOMC meeting, according to analysis from New York-based options manager Carrick Lane. John Marshall, principal at Carrick Lane, said the market appears more comfortable with higher rates and is focusing more on AI than on interest-rate risk. He said equity investors seem to think the FOMC decision is already set and are treating AI as a more immediate concern. The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index, which tracks volatility in U.S. Treasuries, rose 10 points last week to a 92nd percentile high, according to a note from Cboe head of derivatives market intelligence Mandy Xu. Marshall's analysis also showed volatility pricing for rate-sensitive assets such as the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (VNQ) in the upper 90th and 80th percentiles. Even so, those bond-market signals have not been driving stock volatility, and odds of a hike on Wednesday's meeting rose above 91% by midday as equity prices firmed.