Kalshi Traders See U.S. Gas Prices Surpassing $4.60 in 2026

According to CNBC, U.S. oil prices are back above $100 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to multi-month highs, and traders on Kalshi expect Americans will face fresh highs at the pump this year. Gas prices peaked at $4.56 per gallon on May 21, according to AAA's national average, and Kalshi traders assign a 71% chance that the average will top $4.60 in 2026. They also put 57% odds on prices rising above $4.80 a gallon and just over a 40% chance of a move above $5.00, while U.S. gas prices last reached a record of just over $5 per gallon in June 2022. Kalshi contracts ask traders whether gas prices will cross specific price levels and are settled using AAA's data. On Monday, Western Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 3.5% to more than $103 per barrel as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated and raised doubts about the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply. Traders on Kalshi also assign 50-50 odds that gas prices will be above $4.25 per gallon on election day, Nov. 3.