IMF Forecasts 2026 Global Growth at 3%, Warns of Energy and Debt Risks

The International Monetary Fund said the global economy has proved more resilient to energy shocks than previously feared, and 2026 growth is still expected to reach about 3%. According to Sina Finance, the IMF warned that elevated energy prices, stalled disinflation, and global public debt near 100% of GDP leave the outlook highly uncertain. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said some countries used oil and gas reserves, switched to other energy sources, and adopted demand-management measures, which helped reduce the impact of Middle East supply shocks on economic activity. The IMF said the global economy remains on track to grow about 3%. The IMF said oil, natural gas, diesel, and jet fuel prices remain high, while ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is only about one-tenth of prewar levels. Countries that drew on strategic energy reserves still need to rebuild inventories, and the approaching winter in the Northern Hemisphere will also increase energy demand. The IMF said its July forecast for 2026 global headline inflation was raised to 4.7%, and that the disinflation process that has continued since the 2022 cost-of-living crisis has stalled. Short-term inflation expectations have risen, while longer-term expectations remain broadly stable. The IMF said the global public debt figure refers to public debt only and excludes corporate and household debt. It said the ratio has reached its highest level since World War II and may continue to rise. The IMF also said it will release a new World Economic Outlook during the World Bank and IMF annual meetings in Bangkok from October 12 to 18.