JPMorgan commodity research head Natasha Kaneva and other analysts said on September 9 that even if the Iran conflict drags on and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, Brent crude futures could still average $87 a barrel next year, well below current levels. In its base case, JPMorgan expects Brent to average $63 a barrel next year, assuming global peace returns in 2027, according to Jiemian News.
JPMorgan said global crude inventories have been falling much more slowly than expected since the Iran war began, while refined-product supply has remained resilient, shifting more of the market rebalancing pressure to demand. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, global oil demand in 2027 is expected to fall to 101.6 million barrels a day, 5.9 million barrels a day below the base-case forecast of 107.5 million barrels a day, mainly because high prices would curb demand.