STOCKS | Key Tech ETF May Signal Whether the Bull Market Can Keep Rising

Market leadership has shifted again, with AI application and consumer names outperforming AI infrastructure hardware. According to Sina Finance, the ETF could become a barometer for this bull market. The S&P 500 has barely held its uptrend channel, and last week’s mild pullback came close to, but did not break, the upper end of the May-July trading range. Institutional investors appear to be heavily supporting equities, while Goldman Sachs, State Street, the American Association of Individual Investors, and Bank of America data all show asset allocators have added exposure for the autumn rally. Barclays strategist Venu Krishna said retail enthusiasm has cooled in recent weeks, suggesting the latest FOMO wave is being driven mainly by institutions. The article also said the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is below 15, while strong nonfarm payrolls and other upbeat economic data have eased concerns about a weaker U.S. economy and a policy mistake by the Federal Reserve. The piece said rising yields remain a major concern, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moving toward 4.8%. It added that bonds may again serve as a buffer against sudden equity selloffs because higher coupon income has restored some hedging value. On the AI trade, the article said Nvidia has outperformed the semiconductor sector by 35 percentage points since June 30, while software has recovered 70% of last year’s decline. It also said the market has recently favored AI consumer applications over AI hardware infrastructure, and that if iShares Nasdaq Top30 ETF, or QTOP, fails to make a relative new high soon, the momentum behind the AI-led bull market may be fading.