Fed Governor Waller signaled support for a hold, cutting September hike odds from 70% back to a coin flip. Bitcoin responded, rallying toward $82,000. ETFs pulled in $731M Thursday — the strongest single day since January, led by IBIT at $454M. Bitcoin-gold correlation hit a six-year high per Bitwise, last seen in 2020 during COVID stimulus. US public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time. The yen surged 2%, pulling the dollar below its 200-day average and giving Bitcoin another macro tailwind. Friday's payrolls at 8:30am ET is the last variable — strong print hardens the hike case, weak one removes it.Bitcoin ETFs Pull $731 Million in Biggest Day Since January as BTC Tops $80,000Thursday's $731M inflow reversed Tuesday's $236M outflow in a single session — the strongest daily haul since January with IBIT alone pulling $454M, ARKB $138M, and FBTC $74M. Total Bitcoin ETF net assets crossed $103.34B — 6%+ of Bitcoin's market cap — with cumulative net inflows since launch reaching $55.44B. The caveat: IBIT drove both the week's largest outflow and its largest inflow in four sessions, pointing to one large desk repositioning rather than broad allocator conviction. Privacy coins led the accompanying rally — Dash +17%, Zcash +16.5% — the retail sentiment cohort that outperforms when speculative appetite returns. VIX fell to 14, its lowest since January, even as El-Erian warned the bond selloff has further to run. Friday's August payrolls at 8:30am ET with consensus at 53,000-65,000 is the binary that decides whether this bid holds.Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits Six-Year High, Bitwise SaysBitwise's André Dragosch reported Bitcoin's correlation with gold at a six-year high while its correlation with stocks fell to a one-year low — the last comparable level was 2020, during COVID-era fiscal and monetary stimulus. The trigger: the US Treasury's bond buyback expansion weakened the dollar and drew investors into both assets simultaneously, while US public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time in the same week. Bitwise's key framing: investors are no longer debating gold versus Bitcoin as a debasement hedge — they are holding both. "Bitcoin was priced as a risk asset for its first 15 years. The next 15 years could look very different." The divergence from equities — both gold and Bitcoin rising while stocks lagged through August — is the sustained empirical evidence behind that thesis.Yen Surge Drives Dollar Weakness, Lifting Bitcoin and Gold — For NowUSD/JPY fell 1.4% to 156.40, dragging the DXY to 99.22 and testing its 200-day average — Bitcoin responded to the dollar weakness, not the yen directly. Bitcoin traded at $81,071, gold rose alongside it. The support is conditional: orderly yen appreciation weakens the dollar and helps risk assets; a disorderly surge forces yen-carry unwind, selling the dollar assets the trade funded. Bitcoin fell roughly 20% in days during the August 2024 carry unwind. The Fed decides September 15-16, the BOJ September 18 — a Fed hold combined with a BOJ hike narrows the rate differential from both directions at once, the configuration most likely to accelerate the yen. Today's 1.4% move is orderly. There is no reliable way to identify the transition to disorderly before it happens.Bitcoin Reclaims $81,000 as September Hike Odds Fall to a Coin Flip, Zcash Jumps 15%Fed Governor Waller said he would support holding rates steady if price pressures kept easing — cutting September hike odds from 70% back to roughly 50%. That is a meaningful shift from the same voice that cleared labor as an obstacle on Tuesday, and it cuts against Warsh's Jackson Hole framing that financial conditions are not restrictive. September hike odds have now round-tripped twice in a week: 35% pre-Jackson Hole, 70% Thursday, back to 50% Friday. The second hike has been pushed to March 2027. Bitcoin rose to $81,000, Ether +4-5%, XRP +6%, Zcash +15% for a 20% weekly gain — genuine outperformance versus a market broadly flat on the week. Bitcoin itself is only up 1% over seven days; Friday's move was recovery, not breakout.Fed September Hike Odds Fall To 50/50 As Bitcoin Nears $82,000CME FedWatch now shows September 16 split evenly between hold and hike after touching 70% Thursday — swings that tracked oil and yield volatility from the Iran conflict. Bitcoin rallied toward $82,000 on the repricing. The round-trip in hike odds — 35% pre-Jackson Hole, 70% peak, 50% now — reflects a data-dependent Fed with no pre-committed path, exactly as Warsh described. The second hike is not fully priced until March 2027. Friday's payrolls at 8:30am ET is the final inter-meeting data point before September 16: consensus 53,000-65,000 after July's -23,000. A strong print rehardens the case. A weak or negative one removes it entirely, given Bloomberg's Anna Wong has argued there is no modern precedent for the Fed hiking after two consecutive negative readings.
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