Fed Urged to Consider Rate Hike as Inflation and Oil Risks Build

According to CNBC, the Federal Reserve should seriously consider raising rates at next week's meeting as inflation risks tied to energy, shipping disruptions and sticky domestic demand remain elevated. The article said December WTI futures were trading above $79 a barrel, 10-year Treasury yields were six basis points higher than on July 14, and traders on Kalshi were pricing in a 22% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in July, while CME FedWatch implied a 36% probability. The piece said June core retail sales rose 10.1% year-over-year, the ninth straight month of gains, and noted that June unemployment was 4.2%. It also cited June core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and said June core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected at 3.4% year-over-year. The article added that margin debt has increased more than 40% year-over-year, while UBS strategist Keith Parker said AI infrastructure backlogs continue to rise as supply remains constrained and Barclays analyst Jonathan Millar said there is little evidence that faster AI adoption is already producing enough productivity gains to ease inflation.