TFC Optical's First-Half Profit Forecast Sparks Split Views on Growth, Valuation

TFC Optical, one of China’s top optical module component suppliers, forecast first-half 2026 net profit of 1.124 billion yuan to 1.304 billion yuan, up 25% to 45% year on year, according to Jiemian News. Excluding non-recurring items, it expects profit of 1.089 billion yuan to 1.284 billion yuan, up 25.56% to 48.02%. Jiemian News reported that the market is divided over the update: brokers see signs of sequential improvement, while some investors argue the results fall short of expectations. The company said growth was supported by AI data center demand for high-speed optical devices, but margins were pressured by tight upstream material supply and foreign-exchange losses. Based on the midpoint of its guidance, second-quarter profit would be 722 million yuan, up 46.7% from the first quarter’s 492 million yuan. For 2026, institutions’ consensus forecast for net profit is 3.354 billion yuan, implying that first-half guidance would cover only 36.2% of the full-year target. The article also said TFC Optical’s 2025 revenue rose 59% to 5.163 billion yuan, while net profit increased 50% to 2.017 billion yuan. Its overseas revenue reached 3.839 billion yuan, or 74.35% of total sales, and its top five customers accounted for 89.73% of revenue in 2025, with its largest customer, Fabrinet, contributing 63.31% over the past three years.