Barclays: Oil Price Rise May Push Bank Of England Officials Toward Rate-Hike Signals

Barclays analysts said rising oil prices could lead members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to signal a bias toward interest-rate increases in the coming months. According to Jin10, the analysts said the move in oil followed U.S. strikes over the weekend on Iranian targets, and Iran’s attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The analysts said they believed escalating tensions in the Middle East and this week’s rise in oil prices would make the risk of further inflation pressure a key focus for Monetary Policy Committee members. LSEG data showed markets had fully priced in a 25-basis-point Bank of England rate hike in 2026, and put the probability of another 25-basis-point hike before year-end at 28%.