SMBC Nikko Says Japan’s Positive Output Gap May Support Further Rate Hikes

An economist at SMBC Nikko Securities said estimates of the Bank of Japan’s first-quarter output gap showed a stable positive trend, which could help push inflation higher. According to Jin10, economist Yoshimasa Maruyama said the data could be seen as a reason supporting further interest rate hikes. However, he added that the positive output gap had not widened, indicating there was not yet an urgent need to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening. Maruyama said that if it becomes necessary to speed up rate hikes or increase the size of hikes in the future, it could stem from a delayed but significant transmission effect of inflation pressures triggered by the situation in the Middle East, or from a rise in inflation expectations.