CICC: US Inflation Likely Peaks This Summer; Fed Rate Cuts May Come Earlier Than Expected

China International Capital Corp (CICC) said in a research note that US inflation is likely to peak in the summer of 2026 and that the labor market is cooling, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to shift toward easier policy rather than a full pivot to tightening, according to 36Kr. CICC said that as geopolitical and inflation pressures ease in the second half of the year, the probability of further Fed rate hikes is low, while the timing and pace of rate cuts could exceed market expectations. It added that a return of looser US dollar liquidity could provide fresh support for assets such as gold and equities, and said it does not believe the gold bull market has ended.