Bitcoin has rebounded approximately 6% over the past week to hover around $65,000 — recovering from two consecutive weeks of double-digit declines — and K33 Research is pointing to a new all-time high in long-term holder supply as one of the clearest signals yet that the bear market may be approaching its end.
79% of circulating supply in long-term holder hands: a new record
In K33's latest market report, Head of Research Vetle Lunde highlighted that 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now held by long-term holders — a new all-time high. This metric has historically increased throughout every Bitcoin bear market as the market approaches its trough, reflecting the gradual transfer of supply from short-term speculators and reactive sellers to patient, conviction-driven holders who are not motivated to sell regardless of price.
The all-time high reading means that a greater proportion of Bitcoin's supply is currently in the hands of holders who have demonstrated through their behaviour — by not selling through the decline from $126,000 to $59,375 — that they are structurally long rather than tactically positioned. Each new all-time high in this metric has historically marked a further step toward the supply exhaustion that precedes sustainable recoveries.
Old coin reactivation: second-lowest on record, only above 2012
The companion metric reinforces the picture. In 2026, only 218,421 BTC aged two years or more had been reactivated by June 6 — the second-lowest reactivation of old supply ever recorded, exceeded only by 2012, when just 70,600 BTC had been reactivated by the same date.
The contrast with 2024 is striking. By June 6, 2024, approximately 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated — more than five times the 2026 figure. "The only year to experience lower reactivation of old supply by June 6 was 2012," Lunde said. "In contrast, 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated by June 6, 2024, highlighting the stark difference in onchain selling pressure in 2026 compared to the past two years."
A defining feature of the 2024-25 bull cycle was the large volume of older coins being reactivated and likely sold as prices reached record highs. The near-complete absence of that dynamic in 2026 — even as prices fell 53% from the October peak — suggests that long-term holders who survived the decline to $59,375 are not selling at these levels. When old coins don't move, sell-side supply pressure structurally diminishes.
Trading volume at yearly lows: a late-stage bear market pattern
Lunde also highlighted that trading activity has fallen back toward yearly lows — a pattern consistently observed during late-stage Bitcoin bear markets. Low volume in a declining or stabilizing market reflects a market where existing holders are reluctant to sell and new buyers have not yet arrived in force. The combination of near-record low volume and near-record high long-term holder supply creates the conditions that historically precede recoveries: supply is locked away, and the sellers who needed to sell have largely finished.
ETF outflows — identified by both 10x Research and Standard Chartered as the key driver of the recent correction — have also eased materially. Over the past three sessions, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows on two occasions ($86 million on Friday, $10 million on Tuesday), though BlackRock's IBIT has been the primary source of sustained demand with more than $150 million in inflows over four consecutive days.
The 50% underwater warning: final leg lower still possible
Not all of K33's recent analysis has been straightforwardly bullish. In last week's report, Lunde noted that 50% of Bitcoin's circulating supply was underwater — a level historically only reached within weeks of major bear market bottoms, but one that has typically been followed by one final leg lower before the genuine trough forms.
This week's update acknowledges that market conditions have since stabilized from that reading — but the caveat remains relevant. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick similarly identified $83,000 as the level needed to invalidate the lower-highs downtrend, and Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio dropping to -20 (matching every prior cycle bottom) was followed by three to five months of basing in each historical case before a durable recovery began.
The dissenting view: not everyone sees confirmation yet
Analysts at Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have each recently warned that ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand still fall short of confirming a lasting market reversal. Some calls for Bitcoin dropping as low as $30,000 remain on the table, representing the bear case that the 50% underwater reading precedes a final capitulation rather than marking the trough itself.
Bitwise's CIO has separately argued that the bottom debate itself is "the wrong question" — pointing to long-term structural adoption drivers as the more relevant framework for investors with multi-year horizons regardless of where the exact cycle low lands.
FOMC as the next macro test
Lunde's report concludes with the same focus that has dominated this week's analysis: Wednesday's FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh is the next critical test. "With BTC's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 near 0.6, any shift in Fed communication could have an outsized impact on BTC, which tends to be particularly sensitive to macro developments during bear markets," Lunde said.
SpaceX's debut — rising 28% over its first two trading days to a $2.5 trillion valuation — may have impacted crypto liquidity in the immediate term, consistent with the capital rotation thesis that Standard Chartered identified as a primary driver of the $5.72 billion in ETF outflows since mid-May. With the IPO settled, that specific headwind has resolved.
The convergence of signals — K33's record long-term holder supply, Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score at 1.0 for more than two weeks, Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio at historical cycle-bottom levels, CryptoQuant's altcoin selling pressure at a five-year extreme suggesting broader exhaustion, and ETF flows beginning to stabilize — paints a consistent picture of a market in the late stages of a bear cycle. Whether the FOMC decision gives that structure the macro catalyst it needs to transition from floor formation to genuine recovery is the question that 2 p.m. ET today will begin to answer, according to The Block.
Catherine
Weatherly
Kikyo
Anais