Jefferies Economist Says ECB’s 25-Basis-Point Hike May Be the Only One This Cycle

A Jefferies report said markets have already priced in a 25-basis-point European Central Bank interest-rate increase expected later tonight, and argued it would likely be the only hike in the current tightening cycle. According to Jin10, Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar said the next possible window for another rate increase would be in September, when new ECB staff projections are due. Kumar outlined an optimistic scenario in which the war may have ended by then and oil prices are near $80, which he said would reduce the need for another hike. He added that even under a pessimistic scenario—where the war continues, oil prices approach $100, and the European economy nears or enters recession—the ECB would not deliver consecutive rate increases against a recessionary backdrop.