KKR Sees U.S. CPI at 3.6% in 2026, Above Market Consensus

Henry McVey, KKR’s balance sheet chief investment officer and head of global macro and asset allocation, said in a report that inflation in most major economies may remain persistently higher than expected. According to Jin10, he said geopolitical shocks, including the Iran conflict, are becoming more frequent, and that the commodities sector—after six consecutive years of deflation before the COVID-19 outbreak—is now showing a clearer inflation trend. McVey forecast U.S. consumer price index inflation of 3.6% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, compared with market consensus expectations of 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively. He added that his inflation forecasts for Europe and Japan were also above market consensus expectations, without providing specific figures.