JPMorgan Economist Says May Job Growth Has Typically Lagged Recent Averages

Anstey said several economists have observed a pattern of summer slowing in the labor market in recent years. According to Jin10, the pattern appeared in 2024 and 2025 and prompted the Federal Reserve to begin multiple small rate cuts in September. JPMorgan economists calculated that over the past 15 years, May employment growth has typically averaged below the average of the prior three months. A median forecast indicated the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report could sharply break the earlier downward trend. Anstey said that, if it occurs, it would further support signs that the labor market has shifted in recent months. After a clear slowdown last year, employment appears to have started to recover, Anstey added.