Global Currency Order Restructuring May Lead to Long-Term Dollar Depreciation

According to Jin10, a report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that after the short-term factors boosting the dollar fade, the narrative of global currency order restructuring and the weakening of dollar hegemony may once again dominate market direction. The United States' continuous accumulation of net external debt increases its need for dollar depreciation. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's policies and the unresolved risks of dollar 'weaponization' also dampen market demand for U.S. assets. The new Federal Reserve Chair, Walsh, advocates for a 'balance sheet reduction' policy, which could objectively help restore the dollar's credibility if implemented. However, Walsh's policy is constrained by the resilience of the real economy and financial markets, as well as political limitations. Additionally, Trump's foreign, trade, and economic policies continue to negatively impact the dollar's credibility. Considering the overall impact of Walsh and Trump's policies, it is difficult to conclude that the dollar's credibility will improve in the future. We anticipate that the global currency order may continue to restructure, driving the dollar to maintain a long-term depreciation trend.