STOCKS | BlackRock CIO Warns of Potential Downgrade in Stock Earnings Due to Middle East Conflict

Helen Jewell, BlackRock's International Chief Investment Officer for Fundamental Equities, has indicated that the ongoing Middle East conflict could necessitate a reduction in stock earnings expectations. According to Jin10, Jewell noted that current earnings forecasts for this year remain high, ranging from 15% to 18%, suggesting significant room for downward adjustments. She expressed skepticism about the stability of earnings predictions in the consumer sector, particularly given the impact of interest rates and inflation stemming from the Middle East situation. Preliminary signs indicate potential changes in earnings expectations. After weeks of analysts raising forecasts, Citigroup's U.S. Earnings Momentum Index turned negative last Friday, with downgrades outnumbering upgrades by the largest margin in nearly a year. Despite this, analysts' predictions remain optimistic amid high uncertainty and rising price pressures. Compiled data shows that the market generally expects the S&P 500's earnings per share to grow by 16% this year, marking the strongest performance since 2021. The first-quarter earnings season is set to officially begin next week. Jewell highlighted that the potential for earnings growth in energy and materials stocks is offset by the downside risks in industries such as aviation, suggesting that overall earnings will remain relatively stable.