Bitcoin may be entering one of its strongest macro setups in years, with its current price severely undervaluing the economic backdrop ahead, according to Bitwise researcher André Dragosch. The analyst believes the conditions today echo the extreme yet highly rewarding environment that followed the COVID-19 crash in 2020.“The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Dragosch wrote on Friday, noting that Bitcoin’s present market structure is again misaligned with forward-looking global growth trends. During March 2020, Bitcoin tumbled from about $8,000 to below $5,000 before launching into a multiyear bull run.Bitcoin is discounting a recession that may never comeDragosch argues that Bitcoin is now “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” a period defined by aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and the collapse of major crypto institutions such as FTX.“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” he said, adding that the asset has already absorbed much of the negative macro news expected for late 2025 and early 2026.That view contrasts with comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said Sunday that the United States is not on track to enter a recession next year.Despite this, Bitcoin’s price has struggled. After notching a new all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, Bitcoin dropped sharply after a $19 billion liquidation event on Oct. 10. Sentiment deteriorated further after President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which triggered risk-off positioning across global markets.With Bitcoin slipping below $100,000 on Nov. 13 and briefly breaking $90,000 on Nov. 20, bullish conviction faded — but not entirely. Bitcoin recovered above $90,000 within days and has held the level since.Why Dragosch believes growth will accelerate into 2026Dragosch said that the global economy is entering a phase similar to the post-COVID recovery, driven by the lagging effects of substantial monetary stimulus pumped into the system in prior years.He expects this liquidity tailwind to continue supporting growth “well into 2026,” which would historically favor risk assets such as Bitcoin.“I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now,” he said.Market analysts split on whether a bear market has begunSome well-followed traders agree that the recent drawdown may not mark the start of a deeper bear cycle.Crypto analyst Alessio Rastani told Cointelegraph that similar market structures have historically led to strong rallies about 75% of the time, suggesting the current correction could be a precursor to renewed upside.BitMine chair Tom Lee also remains optimistic, saying this week he expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 by year-end and potentially push into new all-time highs if volatility breaks in bulls’ favor.
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