Nvidia has outperformed Bitcoin over the past decade — but crypto industry executives are railing against a rule of thumb that would put it on top for the next ten years.
"Near zero chance of Nvidia outperforming Bitcoin over the next 10 years," said Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten in a Monday post, pitted against a similar view held by investment strategist Lyn Alden.
"I'd pick Bitcoin over Nvidia for the next ten years, personally," Alden said In her own post after highlighting on the same X thread that NVDA "is one of the few assets that has outperformed Bitcoin over a 10-year time period."
Data from trading resource Statmuse suggests from May 23, 2014, to May 23, 2024, Nvidia (NVDA) — which makes chips companies use to train and deploy artificial intelligence (AI) models — is up 21,558% over that time and Bitcoin is up 13,048%.
Source: Statmuse
Since spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds were approved on Jan. 10, Bitcoin's gains have barely outpaced those of Nvidia, with a 31.7% return over the last three months compared to 30.2%.
Meanwhile, a May 24 X thread from The Kobeissi Letter said that, in 1999, someone could have taken "$10,000. put [it] in NVDA stock [and] come back 22 years later with $25.3 million." Xer Daniel Sempere Pico wondered on Monday whether that might have made Nvidia an even "riskier" investment in 2014, when both Bitcoin and AI were far less adopted.
"Don't know if the whole AI thing could have been predicted by anyone back in 2014, but there were some people who could already see Bitcoin's potential," Pico explained. "If we were to go back to 2014, I wonder which one we'd think is more risky and less obvious to achieve such incredible returns," he said.
But 21st.capital co-founder "Sina" on X argued assets in financial markets inherently have a larger domino effect than AI due to more people using them. "There are no network effects in AI. There are multiple layers of network effects in money," they wrote in a May 24 post.
There are indeed very optimistic reports regarding what Bitcoin might do in the next 24 months. But there are also warnings of a very significant correction. On March 4, Cointelegraph reported that former professor of physics Giovanni Santostasi, through his model "Power Law," predicts Bitcoin could rise to the peak of $210,000 in January 2026 and subsequently fall to as low as $60,000.
From the California Gold Rush of 1849 to the cryptocurrency craze and the AI wave, the biggest winners are often not the "gold miners" who directly compete for the gold, but those who provide them with the "shovels".
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