In 2026, the crypto market will shift from hype to "Who is buying? Where is the money coming from?"

Author:Naga Avan-Nomayo；Translator: Centreless

Abstract

• Kraken believes that in the next phase of cryptocurrency development in 2026, it will no longer be driven by speculation, but rather by market structure, as institutional instruments will reshape Bitcoin's liquidity and price discovery mechanisms.

  • Kraken believes that in the next phase of cryptocurrency development in 2026, it will no longer be driven by speculation, but rather by market structure, as institutional instruments will reshape Bitcoin's liquidity and price discovery mechanisms.

  • Meanwhile, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest points out that the surge in gold prices and the decline in Bitcoin prices in 2025 indicate that macroeconomic pressures have been reallocating capital—even though Bitcoin's supply remains structurally constrained. Entering 2026, the crypto market is undergoing an "internal upgrade"—prices may not rise as wildly as before, but the market's "underlying structure" is undergoing profound changes. According to the latest annual outlook released by crypto exchange Kraken, this change mainly stems from two aspects: first, macroeconomic uncertainty (such as inflation, interest rates, and slowing economic growth); and second, an increasing number of institutional funds beginning to dominate Bitcoin's price movements. Kraken economist Thomas Perfumo points out that while Bitcoin remains a "barometer" of market risk sentiment, the forces driving prices have changed. Previously, retail investors drove the market; now, it's US-listed Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries (such as MicroStrategy) influencing the market. For example, in 2025, these institutional channels bought nearly $44 billion worth of Bitcoin, but the price of Bitcoin didn't surge much, and was even somewhat "disappointing." Why? Because many long-term Bitcoin holders (such as early investors) took the opportunity to sell their holdings, offsetting the upward pressure from the new funds. The result was: money came in, but the price didn't take off—this is very different from the past situation where "as soon as there was capital, the price skyrocketed." Perfumer believes that the current macroeconomic environment is the key to determining market direction. Slowing global economic growth, persistent inflation, and a slower pace of central bank interest rate cuts are all putting pressure on risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). He also cautioned that apparent calm does not equate to safety; a sudden tightening of market liquidity (such as banks or institutions withdrawing funds) could trigger sudden volatility. Stablecoins and Regulation: Two New Pillars for 2026 Besides institutional funding, Kraken specifically mentioned two key trends: Stablecoins are becoming increasingly important: Stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, such as USDT and USDC, have seen record-high circulation. They are not only mediums of exchange but also the "lifeblood" of on-chain liquidity. US regulations are being implemented at an accelerated pace: for example, stablecoin legislation like the GENIUS Act, and broader reforms to crypto market rules. These policies will determine "how money gets on-chain" and "where innovation happens." However, this institutional driving force may also encounter bottlenecks. In 2025, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs was already slower than in 2024; and companies that raised money to buy Bitcoin through stock issuance are now facing narrowing share price premiums and more difficult fundraising. Without significant "market optimism" (risk-on), it will be difficult for them to trigger another major bull run. Bitcoin is not gold, but it can help you diversify risk. Renowned investor Cathie Wood expressed a similar view in her 2026 outlook. She pointed out that while gold rose 65% in 2025, Bitcoin actually fell 6%. But don't forget, gold can be continuously mined, while the total supply of Bitcoin will always be only 21 million—making its supply much scarcer. More importantly, Bitcoin has a very low correlation with other mainstream assets (such as stocks and bonds). Wood even stated, "The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is lower than the correlation between the S&P 500 and bonds." This means that if you want your portfolio to be more stable during volatile times while pursuing higher returns, Bitcoin is actually a good "risk diversification tool." Will it rise to $100,000 next? For short-term traders, the most pressing question is: Is Bitcoin's recent surge towards $100,000 a genuine breakout or just a temporary pause? Ruslan Lienkha, Head of Markets at YouHodler, believes that Bitcoin is currently significantly undervalued compared to US stocks. He predicts the price will either pull back to around $90,000 to test support, or continue its upward push towards $100,000—this price level will become the next key resistance. Kraken also mentioned that the bigger opportunities in 2026 may not lie in Bitcoin itself, but in asset tokenization and DeFi (decentralized finance). For example, turning real estate, bonds, and even stocks of large companies like Apple or Microsoft into digital tokens on the blockchain. Standard Chartered Bank also sees potential in this, particularly believing that Ethereum will benefit the most, as many institutions are moving real-world assets onto Ethereum. Over the past year, these tokenized assets have grown very rapidly. If, in the future, even ordinary people can buy and sell "tokenized US stocks" via mobile phones, it will bring entirely new global demand and on-chain transaction activity. In short: The crypto market in 2026 may no longer be the kind of "boom-and-bust" cycle you are familiar with, but rather a "stress test" jointly driven by the macroeconomy, institutional behavior, and regulatory framework. Who is buying, how the money enters, and how the rules are set—these changes at the "underlying rule" level may be more important than the price itself.