Bitfinex Alpha: Crypto Market May Have Hit Potential Local Bottom

Bitcoin prices fell below the 120-day range to $53,219 on July 3 on concerns about a sell-off by the German government and Mt. Gox creditors, Bitfinex Alpha said in its latest report. But market data over the weekend suggested a potential local bottom may have been reached. First, the market realized that although the nominal value of the Bitcoin transferred by the German government was large, it accounted for a relatively small proportion of the total transaction volume. Second, the volatility indicator records a narrowing in the gap between implied and historical volatility, which suggests that the market is expecting more stability in the future and means that BTC is likely to fluctuate at current levels, or at least experience less severe declines. Third, market positioning suggests there are more late-shorting investors in the short term, with long-term Bitcoin holders continuing to profit significantly, while short-term holder selling may have nearly dried up. Additionally, the Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate turned negative for the first time since the May 1 bottom, potentially indicating that the market is oversold, which, combined with a recovering SOPR, typically means the market is finding a bottom.