Bernstein: Georgia Is an Underestimated Risk for Data Center Development

Bernstein analyst Madison Rezaei said Georgia may be an underappreciated risk for data center development, as Atlanta attracts major developers including Digital Realty Trust and Equinix. According to Sina Finance, Democrats hold a 3-2 majority on the Georgia Public Service Commission, which oversees power-supply approvals and decisions on accelerating electricity provision. Rezaei said some major approvals are already in place, including about 10 GW of certified capacity and a 3.2-GW power contract for OpenAI. Georgia Power’s next capacity request and the 2028 rate review remain unresolved. The commission’s influence is focused on future projects, including Georgia Power’s planned mid-2027 filing for capacity in 2032-2033 and the 2028 rate review; Rezaei said the commission would not halt construction already underway but could affect electricity pricing in the 2030s. She identified OpenAI’s 3.2-GW Camilla project, Digital Realty Trust’s 2.0-GW Bunkerhouse project, QTS’s 1.4-GW data center in Blakely, and Google’s White Oak and Rambo facilities, totaling 2.7 GW. Rezaei said 87% of Georgia’s planned effective capacity that has not yet begun construction is scheduled for 2029 or later. The equipment sales tax exemption runs through 2031, and repealing it would require approval from the Republican-majority state Senate. She said Georgia’s risk has not materially worsened this year, but future construction costs will rise.