U.S. Bondholders Face Midterm, Treasury Issuance and Fed Risks After Strong Month

U.S. bondholders have just had their best month in more than a year and now face risks from the midterm elections, the Treasury’s latest borrowing plan and a series of Federal Reserve speeches. According to Sina Finance, investors will watch Tuesday’s vote to see whether Democrats can take control of Congress from Republicans; the following day, the Treasury will release its quarterly refunding statement. Since the mid-1990s, a divided Congress or government has often benefited Treasuries, but some doubt the pattern will hold given the scale of the federal deficit. Many primary dealers expect changes to the Treasury’s guidance that could pave the way for reduced long-term Treasury issuance in 2027, alongside increased supplies of Treasury bills and short-dated notes. Speeches by several Fed officials and a series of major employment data releases could also shift expectations for the path of monetary policy.