Bitcoin News | Bitcoin Year-End Forecasts Range From $76,450 to $90,800 Depending on Who Wins Congress, Bloomberg Survey Shows

Bitcoin’s year-end outlook depends partly on who controls Congress after Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to a Bloomberg Markets Pulse survey. Respondents put bitcoin’s median year-end price at $90,800 if Republicans keep both the House and Senate, $84,100 if control is split between the parties, and $76,450 if Democrats win both chambers, close to bitcoin’s current price just under $77,000. Prediction markets see a Democratic sweep as the most likely result.What the Outcome Could Mean for Crypto PolicyTD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg views Democratic control of both chambers as the toughest outcome for bitcoin and the crypto industry, saying it could make the CLARITY Act market-structure bill hard to pass over the next two years. He sees Republican control of both chambers as the most favorable for crypto policy, though a narrow Senate majority could still leave the bill stalled.Not everyone thinks the election will decide bitcoin’s path. Mark Connors, chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions, said focusing on prediction markets and early exit polls is a waste of time for year-end positioning. Even under Democratic control, he said, crypto would still have support from regulators and large financial firms, and he maintained his 2027 bitcoin target of $180,000.Key Levels to WatchWith the election and Friday’s jobs report landing in the same week, QCP puts bitcoin’s support at $76,000 to $76,600 and resistance at $79,500 to $80,500. If support breaks, QCP is watching the 50-week moving average near $75,700 and the 200-day moving average near $73,100.Trader Doctor Profit also sees $76,000 as the key level for keeping bitcoin’s bullish structure intact, citing a previous breakout zone, weekly support and the 50-week moving average. He said it would take at least two to three daily closes below that level to confirm a break, which could open a drop toward $67,000 to $69,000.What History ShowsAnalyst Benjamin Cowen noted that bitcoin fell in the fourth quarter of each of the past three midterm years, by 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022, all during bear markets. He sees fourth-quarter sell-offs in midterm years as buying opportunities. Over a longer horizon, CoinDesk data shows bitcoin has risen an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after the past three midterms, though the sample is small and the gains may reflect bitcoin’s halving cycles rather than the elections.Macro May Matter MoreIn a November 2 report, Bitwise’s head of European research André Dragosch and researcher Luke Deans said they have found no statistically significant link between midterm election odds and the performance of major crypto assets. They see tightening financial conditions, inflation and risks in the AI trade as more important, and said bitcoin’s short-term downside risk may stay elevated until global growth expectations are repriced.