BOC International said market expectations for Ctrip's second-quarter results are already very low, as the company is expected to book a fine in the quarter over past compliance issues and complete business rectification under regulatory requirements, while high oil prices and adverse weather in parts of mainland China have weighed on travel demand, according to ETNet.
The broker said investors should focus more on Ctrip's business outlook for the second half of 2026, especially whether gross merchandise value at its overseas platform Trip.com will slow materially. It added that any slowdown in overseas growth could widen negative operating leverage.
BOC International said the headwinds should also create a lower base for 2027 results, and that Ctrip's valuation could gradually improve after market earnings forecasts are cut. It kept a Buy rating on Ctrip and a target price of HK$428.