Analysis: Bitcoin encountered resistance at a key level; continuous outflows from ETFs and increased market uncertainty due to disagreements within the Federal Reserve led to a wait-and-see approach.

Bitcoin traded sideways around $76,000 on Thursday, with market focus quickly shifting to internal policy disagreements and macroeconomic uncertainty after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance zone of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum. Kraken's chief economist, Thomas Perfumo, stated that the market is currently more focused on the policy uncertainty caused by the Fed's internal "division" than on the inaction itself, especially given the coexistence of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential succession of Kevin Warsh, resulting in a lack of clear policy transition. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support between $65,000 and $70,000. Although selling pressure has eased somewhat, demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout. On the macroeconomic front, the Fed's rare and significant disagreement has been interpreted by the market as increased uncertainty regarding the inflation path. Analysts from Bitget Wallet and 21Shares, among others, point out that expectations of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period" are suppressing the performance of risk assets, and the crypto market has entered a wait-and-see phase. In terms of fund flows, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29th; Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of approximately $87.7 million during the same period. Although some individual products still see inflows, the overall trend indicates that institutional demand is cooling. Meanwhile, while CME holdings and ETF asset management scale are stabilizing, there are no strong signs of a return to the market. The derivatives market shows that short positions in perpetual contracts have reached historical highs. Improved sentiment could trigger a squeeze, but the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure. Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between improving support structures and weak demand, with continued ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppressing its breakthrough of key resistance levels. (The Block)