Analysis: Bitcoin's attempt to break $80,000 stalled; derivatives data shows a decline in market risk appetite.

Bitcoin faces significant resistance around $80,000, while the derivatives market continues to signal risk aversion. Analysts point out that short-term holders' cost base is concentrated around $80,000; a break above this level could trigger profit-taking, limiting further upside potential. Meanwhile, the upcoming release of US March PCE inflation data, coupled with rising international oil prices and increasing US Treasury yields, continues to suppress risk assets. WTI crude oil briefly rose to $110, and restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz also keep the energy market vulnerable. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but four officials dissented—the most since 1992—further exacerbating market uncertainty. Bitwise researcher Luke Deans stated that altcoins have a 180-day correlation and beta percentile close to 97% and 99% with Bitcoin, respectively, meaning most tokens will continue to behave as "highly leveraged versions of Bitcoin." Derivatives data shows that total open interest (OI) in the futures market fell by over 2% to $119 billion in the past 24 hours, while trading volume increased by 26% to $208 billion, indicating a large number of positions were liquidated, funds withdrew from the market, and risk aversion intensified. During the same period, exchanges liquidated over $500 million in leveraged positions, most of which were long positions, reflecting a concentrated blow to long positions amid market weakness. Furthermore, BTC and ETH futures OI fell by 2% and 1.7% respectively, and the 24-hour cumulative volume difference (CVD) for most major cryptocurrencies turned negative, indicating stronger selling pressure and the risk of further market decline. Deribit data shows that protective put option prices for BTC and ETH continue to be higher than call option prices, while a large number of open positions in Bitcoin call options with a strike price of $80,000 form a positive Gamma structure, meaning that market makers may continue to sell hedges near this price level, further suppressing upside potential. (CoinDesk)