According to Odaily Seer, a new stock listing on Polymarket, "Elon Musk Wins at Least $10 Billion Settlement with Altman/OpenAI," currently shows a 14% probability of being "yes." The contract rules state that if Elon Musk wins at least $10 billion in cash or equivalent compensation in the initial trial of his lawsuit against Altman (Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California) through a jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market will settle as "yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "no." If the case is lost, the initial trial fails to reach the compensation threshold, or the compensation is only non-monetary, it will be judged as "no," and the results of retrials and appeals will not be included in this market listing. The primary basis for the judgment will be official information from the U.S. court system, while also referencing consensus reports from credible media outlets. Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI went to trial on April 27th local time, initiating jury selection. Prior to the trial, the two sides escalated their public exchanges on the X platform, with OpenAI claiming the lawsuit was baseless, while Elon Musk repeatedly attacked Sam Altman, calling him "Scam Altman." The core of the case revolves around the controversy surrounding OpenAI's for-profit transformation. Elon Musk accuses OpenAI of violating its founding non-profit commitment and is seeking up to $134 billion in damages, while also demanding the reversal of the for-profit transformation and the dismissal of relevant executives. The determination of liability is expected to continue until mid-May. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.