Iranian Situation Sees Further Developments Amid Market Optimism

On April 20, Jin10 reported that a research note from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the situation in Iran has entered its seventh week, showing signs of further development. Although the initial round of negotiations broke down, both the U.S. and Iran have announced the reopening of the Hormuz Strait for navigation, which has significantly boosted market optimism despite subsequent fluctuations in the situation. According to Jin10, this aligns with CICC's baseline assumption that while short-term volatility may persist, a complete and uncontrollable escalation is not the baseline scenario. U.S. President Donald Trump is mindful of the upcoming midterm elections, and a full-scale escalation does not serve the interests of either party. Under these circumstances, Brent crude oil prices are expected to gradually decline to around $80 in the second and third quarters, allowing the Federal Reserve to potentially lower interest rates.