CME Group BTC futures activity has fallen to a 14-month low, possibly due to institutional funds withdrawing as basis trading becomes ineffective.

The CME Bitcoin futures market continues its weakening trend. Data shows that the average daily open interest (OI) in March 2026 had fallen below $8 billion, and further declined to approximately $7.2 billion in early April, a new low since February 2024, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, monthly trading volume in March fell to $163 billion, nearly halved from its peak in January 2025. Market analysis points out that this decline is mainly due to the large-scale unwinding of "basis trades." Previously, institutions profited by buying spot ETFs and shorting CME futures, which was the core driver of CME open interest growth. However, as Bitcoin prices fell from a high of $120,000 to below $70,000, annualized basis profits were significantly compressed. Currently, the approximately 5% basis profit is close to the risk-free interest rate of approximately 4.5%. After adding funding costs and counterparty risk, the arbitrage opportunity has essentially disappeared, prompting leveraged funds to withdraw. (The Block)