Polymarket's prediction that "Trump will announce the end of military action against Iran before April 30" has risen to 61%, a 30% increase in the past 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Polymarket's "Trump announcing the end of military action against Iran before April 30" surged to 78% at one point, and is currently at 61%, a 30% increase in 24 hours. The total trading volume for the "When will Trump announce the end of military action against Iran?" event contract has now exceeded $15.669 million. The rules of this event contract are: if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announces that the military action against Iran launched on February 28, 2026, has ended by a specified date (Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "yes"; otherwise, the market will mark it as "no." A valid statement must clearly indicate that the action has ended. Informal statements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information are not eligible. Public written statements by Trump (e.g., posts on his personal "Truth Social" account) are considered valid statements, as are videos posted on Trump's social media accounts. The market's primary basis for judgment is the official statement of the US government and/or its official representatives, but it also considers consensus from other credible reports. Previously, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran and stated that the US would assist in addressing the growing shipping congestion in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump's post on Truth Social did not provide specific details on how the US would help with the strait, nor did it discuss the possibility of Iran continuing to charge tolls for certain vessels passing through the strait. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.