Bitcoin and global risk assets strengthened on news of potential ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran. Bitcoin rose to $69,350 on Monday morning, a new weekly high. Media reports indicated that the US, Iran, and regional mediators were discussing a 45-day ceasefire framework, which, if reached, could lead to a longer-term ceasefire. Analysts pointed out that this surge was primarily driven by expectations of ceasefire negotiations, rather than Trump's tough rhetoric. The market's sensitivity to his statements has decreased, and it now prefers to judge based on actual action signals. In the derivatives market, the crypto market has experienced a typical "short squeeze," with both implied and realized volatility at low levels. Previous market sentiment was extremely fearful, creating conditions for a rebound. However, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key variable. If only a ceasefire is reached without a substantial resumption of shipping, the rally may only be a short-term rebound; if negotiations fail, Bitcoin could still fall back to the $60,000 range. (Decrypt)