Polymarket Sees Drop in U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Probability

The probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by May 31 has significantly decreased to 39%, according to Odaily. This marks a 12% drop in the past 24 hours, with the total trading volume for the event contract nearing $85 million. The contract stipulates that a formal ceasefire agreement must be publicly announced and agreed upon by both governments by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on the specified date for the market to resolve as 'yes.' Otherwise, it will resolve as 'no.' The agreement requires explicit confirmation from both the U.S. and Iranian governments or an overwhelming consensus through media reports. Previously, U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson Sean Parnell confirmed that Army Chief of Staff Randy George is set to resign. This personnel change follows a national address by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the Iran conflict. Several senior Army officers have described George's dismissal as a 'blow to the Army,' expressing anger and frustration over the decision, which they believe exacerbates the longstanding feeling of being 'under siege' among the Army's leadership.