Wintermute: ETF funds pushed BTC above $95,000; tariff disruptions caused a pullback, but the overall structure remains healthy.

On January 19th, amid ETF inflows and softening inflation data, BTC briefly broke through the $95,000 resistance level, which had been in place since November of last year, reaching a high of nearly $98,000. However, Trump's subsequent announcement of additional tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland triggered a surge in macro risk sentiment, causing BTC to quickly fall back to around $92,000. Within hours, approximately $850 million in long positions were liquidated across the market, with BTC and ETH accounting for nearly half. The factors driving the rise were mainly supported by three aspects: first, a significant return of funds to Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a net inflow of approximately $760 million in a single day and a weekly total of approximately $1.4 billion; second, continued cooling inflation data, with the US core CPI rising 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021; and third, BTC's catch-up trading against hard assets such as gold. On the macro level, the tariff news reintroduced downward pressure. Trump announced tariffs of 10% on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, with plans to raise them to 25% in June. The EU subsequently prepared retaliatory measures worth approximately €93 billion. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to weigh on risk assets. At the regulatory and institutional level, several recent developments continue to influence medium-term expectations: the CLARITY Act has encountered obstacles due to disagreements between Coinbase and the White House over stablecoin yield terms, weakening expectations for regulatory clarity in the short term; Goldman Sachs confirmed it is actively researching tokenization and stablecoin technologies; South Korea passed amendments to establish a legal basis for tokenized securities; and the New York Stock Exchange confirmed it is exploring a 24/7 trading mechanism based on tokenization. Regarding the market outlook, market maker Wintermute believes that this breakout differs from previous leveraged rallies, being driven more by real capital inflows. While Monday's sharp drop was significant, leverage was quickly cleared, and the market did not experience a chain reaction of declines, maintaining a relatively healthy overall structure. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether BTC can hold above $90,000 and whether ETF fund flows continue; if it falls below this range, the trading range since November last year may turn into a resistance level again.