U.S. Interest Rate Mispricing Raises Concerns Amid Employment Market Shifts

According to BlockBeats, BCA Research analyst Dhaval Joshi has highlighted a significant divergence between current U.S. interest rate pricing and the Federal Reserve's stance, suggesting potential mispricing in the market. U.S. President Donald Trump has called for a 3% rate cut from the Federal Reserve, asserting dominance in his ongoing dispute with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, especially after the July employment report indicated a noticeable slowdown in the U.S. job market. However, Joshi urges attention to the underlying causes of this employment market deceleration. Joshi explains that the current weakness in the job market is not driven by reduced demand for labor, as typically expected, but rather by the availability of workers, or labor supply. He warns that rate cuts could exacerbate the imbalance between labor demand and supply, potentially reigniting inflation without boosting employment growth, thus constituting a policy error. Joshi emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between preliminary and revised data. Initial economic data releases are often based on incomplete information to ensure timeliness, which compromises accuracy. Once data is fully revised to include comprehensive information, it becomes more accurate. Therefore, initial data should be viewed as "inaccurate" due to incomplete information rather than "manipulated." Upon reviewing the revised and more accurate U.S. employment data, a clear and consistent picture emerges: the upward trend in employment is primarily due to increased labor supply. Recent job growth weakness is attributed to a slowdown in labor supply growth, not a decline in labor utilization, such as rising unemployment rates. This situation points to a significant mispricing in the U.S. interest rate market.