BTIG: PHLX Semiconductor Index Breaks Below 200-Day Average for First Time Since May 2025

According to CNBC, the PHLX Semiconductor Index, known as the SOX, closed below its 200-day moving average on Friday for the first time since May 2025 and stood roughly 40% below its June 22 high, according to BTIG. BTIG’s analysis of comparable breaks since 1995 found the index fell an average of 0.8% over the next five trading days, then gained an average of 4.25% after 10 days, 3.09% after 20 days, 2.95% after 30 days and 0.77% after 40 days. At the 50-day mark, the index was higher in 44% of cases. Across all measured periods, the average return was negative 0.32%, while the median decline was 2.47%. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky said the longer-term record was less favorable, and that investors who bought semiconductor stocks between May and October were underwater. He said the resulting overhead supply was unlikely to be overcome soon and that a move back to the April breakout point of 8k-8300 was necessary to fully retrace the parabolic advance.