STOCKS | JPMorgan Sees Upside Risk to Its 3.75% South Korea Rate Forecast

JPMorgan said its already above-consensus forecast for South Korean interest rates still has further upside risk if semiconductor-led growth pushes up inflation, provided credit and financial markets remain stable. According to Sina Finance, the Wall Street firm expects the Bank of Korea to raise rates in November this year, February next year, and May, lifting the policy benchmark to 3.75% in the current tightening cycle. That forecast is above the 3.5% median in a media economists' survey, which showed respondents expecting rates to stay at 3.5% through the second quarter of 2028. JPMorgan economist Seok Gil Park said in an interview, "Our forecast is 3.75%, but it is too early to determine the upper end of the rate terminal at this stage. We are going through an unprecedented macro shock."