Polymarket Odds of a 25-Basis-Point Fed Rate Hike Fall to 49%

Polymarket odds for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to 49%, down 10% over the past 24 hours. According to ChainCatcher, the decline followed weaker-than-expected August ADP private payrolls data, which rose by only 38,000, the smallest increase since January. Market attention is now focused on the August nonfarm payrolls report due on September 4, the last full employment report before the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 policy meeting. Analysts said stronger data could further lift bets on a rate hike, while much weaker data could trigger recession trades; a moderate cooling in between may be the most favorable outcome for risk assets.