Citi Sees India Rate Hikes of 50-75 Basis Points in Second Half of FY2027

Citi analysts said stronger-than-expected economic growth in India has removed a key obstacle to monetary policy normalization, creating room for 50-75 basis points of rate hikes in the second half of the fiscal year. According to Sina Finance, Citi said a rate hike at the central bank's October meeting remains possible, and its base case will be confirmed after August inflation data is released. Citi also raised its forecast for India's real GDP growth in FY2027 to 7.3% from 7.8% actual growth in the April-June quarter. The report said India's real investment growth in April-June was 11.9%, the strongest level since late 2018 excluding volatility during the COVID-19 period, reinforcing the view that corporate capital expenditure momentum is improving. It added that India's economic growth in the second half of FY2027 is expected to slow to 7.1% from 7.6% in the first half, due to unfavorable base effects, El Nino, and the fading impact of last year's policy stimulus measures.